Predominance of antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccine breakthrough cases from the San Francisco Bay Area, California (preprint)

Associations between vaccine breakthrough cases and infection by SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have remained largely unexplored. Here we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences and viral loads from 1,373 persons with COVID-19 from the San Francisco Bay Area from February 1 to June 30, 2021, of which 125 (9.1%) were vaccine breakthrough infections. Fully vaccinated were more likely than unvaccinated persons to be infected by variants carrying mutations associated with decreased antibody neutralization (L452R, L452Q, E484K, and/or F490S) (78% versus 48%, p = 1.96e-08), but not by those associated with increased infectivity (L452R and/or N501Y) (85% versus 77%, p = 0.092). Differences in viral loads were non-significant between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated persons overall (p = 0.99) and according to lineage (p = 0.09 - 0.78). Viral loads were significantly higher in symptomatic as compared to asymptomatic vaccine breakthrough cases (p < 0.0001), and symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections had similar viral loads to unvaccinated infections (p = 0.64). In 5 cases with available longitudinal samples for serologic analyses, vaccine breakthrough infections were found to be associated with low or undetectable neutralizing antibody levels attributable to immunocompromised state or infection by an antibody-resistant lineage. These findings suggest that vaccine breakthrough cases are preferentially caused by circulating antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants, and that symptomatic breakthrough infections may potentially transmit COVID-19 as efficiently as unvaccinated infections, regardless of the infecting lineage.

Transmission, infectivity, and antibody neutralization of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in California carrying a L452R spike protein mutation (preprint)

We identified a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant by viral whole-genome sequencing of 2,172 remnant nasal/nasopharyngeal swab samples from 44 counties in California. Named B.1.427/B.1.429 or 20C/L452R, the variant emerged around May 2020 and increased from 0% to >50% of sequenced cases from September 1, 2020 to January 29, 2021, exhibiting an estimated 18.6-24% increase in transmissibility relative to wild-type circulating strains. This variant is characterized by three mutations in the spike protein, including a L452R substitution in the receptor-binding domain. Our analyses revealed 2-fold increased B.1.427/B.1.429 viral shedding in vivo and increased L452R pseudovirus infection of cell cultures and lung organoids, albeit decreased relative to pseudoviruses carrying the N501Y mutation found in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages). Antibody neutralization assays showed 4.0 to 6.7-fold and 2.0-fold decreases in neutralizing titers from convalescent patients and vaccine recipients, respectively. The increased prevalence of a more transmissible variant in California associated with decreased antibody neutralization warrants further investigation.

Genomic epidemiology identifies emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States (preprint)

As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and neutralizing activity in donor and patient blood from the San Francisco Bay Area (preprint)

We report very low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in two San Francisco Bay Area populations. Seropositivity was 0.26% in 387 hospitalized patients admitted for non-respiratory indications and 0.1% in 1,000 blood donors. We additionally describe the longitudinal dynamics of immunoglobulin-G, immunoglobulin-M, and in vitro neutralizing antibody titers in COVID-19 patients. Neutralizing antibodies rise in tandem with immunoglobulin levels following symptom onset, exhibiting median time to seroconversion within one day of each other, and there is >93% positive percent agreement between detection of immunoglobulin-G and neutralizing titers.

A Genomic Survey of SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Introductions into Northern California without a Predominant Lineage (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally, resulting in >300,000 reported cases worldwide as of March 21st, 2020. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California using samples from returning travelers, cruise ship passengers, and cases of community transmission with unclear infection sources. Virus genomes were sampled from 29 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection from Feb 3rd through Mar 15th. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least 8 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages, suggesting multiple independent introductions of the virus into the state. Virus genomes from passengers on two consecutive excursions of the Grand Princess cruise ship clustered with those from an established epidemic in Washington State, including the WA1 genome representing the first reported case in the United States on January 19th. We also detected evidence for presumptive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages from one community to another. These findings suggest that cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California to date is characterized by multiple transmission chains that originate via distinct introductions from international and interstate travel, rather than widespread community transmission of a single predominant lineage. Rapid testing and contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions are measures that will help to slow SARS-CoV-2 spread in California and other regions of the USA.